Categories: Emerging Leaders, Geopolitics
Is it Possible the United States and China Are Already at War?
Author: Emilyn Tuomala, Program Analyst
- Alexandria, VA | June 04, 2025
Emilyn Tuomala, a program analyst at Systems Planning & Analysis, recently authored an article for Disruptive By Design, a column in SIGNAL Magazine featuring disruptive technologies, issues, ideas, or insights related to national security, defense, intelligence, and homeland security.
Tuomala is a member of the Northern Virginia Chapter of AFCEA and previously served as a John S. McCain Strategic Defense Fellow at the Defense Technology Security Administration. She also studied emerging technology issues and deterrence theory as a graduate research associate at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security Research. Her full article, “Is it Possible the United States and China Are Already at War?” can be read here.
In her article, Tuomala examines how the military concept of the “tooth-to-tail” ratio—the relationship between combat forces (“tooth”) and their logistical support systems (“tail”)—offers critical insights into current geopolitical dynamics. Drawing on historical examples, she highlights how strong logistics contributed to U.S. success in World War II, while poor support undermined Germany’s Operation Barbarossa.
Tuomala analyzes the U.S. response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, showing how targeting the “tail” via economic measures such as sanctions and export controls weakened Russia’s military capabilities. She then parallels these strategies to rising U.S.-China relations, noting that recent reciprocal economic restrictions – designed to safeguard technological and defense supply chains – threaten to escalate strategic competition into direct open conflict.
Continue reading “Is it Possible the United States and China Are Already at War?“
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